Crime is in the water: Impact of water pollution on crime (Works in Progress)

Abstract: In this study, I investigate the relationship between water pollution, particularly waterborne lead exposure, and criminal activities, using major water crises like Flint, Michigan, as natural experiments. I utilize agency-level daily crime data from 2010 to 2019 and adopt difference-in-differences and synthetic DID methodologies to analyze the effects of water contamination on crimes against persons, property, and society. My findings reveal a statistically significant but heterogeneous impact, with avoidance behavior emerging as a dominant factor. I also detect spillover effects in adjacent areas, highlighting spatial dynamics. While this research provides valuable insights into the interaction between environmental crises and crime, I propose further robustness checks and exploration of additional water crises to enhance external validity. This study contributes to the understanding of the socio-economic repercussions of water pollution on urban crime patterns.